No, I don't mean this in terms of age or "oldness." I mean this in terms of campaign style. Fred Thompson threw away what could have been a sure nomination. All the GOP bigwigs loved him. He was a true conservative Republican, Southern and breathed gravitas. He was, as many hopeful Republicans claimed, a "Southern-fried Reagan." Here in East Tennessee there were Fred 08 stickers everywhere.
And then he imploded. Or rather, it become obvious that he had no idea what running for President of the United States actually entailed. He refused to do all the hard work of retail campaigning. He never bothered to set up organizations in the primary states. He didn't care about GOTV. He even tired of the red pickup truck. He figured a few operatives could put together a handful of press releases and You Tubes and that would carry him to victory. It failed.
Keep in mind that the eventual winner of the GOP primary did not prevail because he outworked the other nominees, or had a better strategy or message. He won because Rudy imploded and Mike Huckabee prevented Mitt Romney from winning Iowa and taking control in January. John McCain was literally the last man standing and won the primary by default. Never forget that; large numbers of Republicans today still believe he's the wrong candidate.
So what lesson is McCain drawing from the primary? Of all people, Michael Gerson recognizes the lackluster nature of the McCain campaign:
The style and approach of general election campaigns are often conditioned by the method of victory in the primaries. The Obama team ends the season like a battle-worn Army division -- organized, relentless and skilled at fundraising, registering voters and getting them to the polls. Members of the McCain team feel more like survivors of a near-death experience -- convinced that the virtues of their candidate and the blessings of the political gods matter more than the money, phone banks and door-knocking of traditional politics.
ad_iconThis worries some Republican strategists. One recently described the McCain campaign to me as the political equivalent of a Mickey Rooney and Judy Garland movie: Every morning a few guys get together and say, "Let's put on a show!" McCain's state campaign organizations, coalition outreach and get-out-the-vote efforts are weak or nonexistent. But McCain campaign officials are convinced that they will win -- if they win -- in a different manner from that of the methodical Bush campaigns of 2000 and 2004. McCain will either catch fire, or he won't -- and traditional efforts to boost turnout, in this view, are not likely to make the difference. Given its history, the McCain campaign is understandably proud of its stripped-down, seat-of-the-pants, insurgent style. But it may eventually be useful to have a serious campaign organization in, say, Colorado.
Gerson picks up on something I've noticed for a while: the amateurism of the McCain campaign. The infamous cottage cheese in lime jello press conference exemplified the shoestring McCain campaign. Compared to Bush's 2004 run, McCain looks like he's running for Cocke County Coroner and not President of the United States (yes, Cocke County is here in TN).
Like Fred Thompson, John McCain imagines his own story and personality will be enough to win. Certainly, McCain - and Obama - have fascinating life stories to bring to the race. But Obama's strength lies not in his charisma alone, but in his amazing organization. McCain, on the other hand, is not bothering to reach out to critical evangelical voters, is hardly following through on efforts to woo disaffected Hillary voters, is setting up no organization in places like Colorado, is changing his mantra and message every week, and is actually turning off GOP voter enthusiasm every week. Just like Fred Thompson. Only this time the GOP is stuck with the man many Republicans feared would be another Bob Dole.
When Obama continues painting McCain as Bush III - replete with 100 years of Iraq occupation and opposition to Roe v. Wade - Democrats will unite behind Obama and Independents will swing to Obama.
If John McCain wants to win this election, he needs to more than just hope for Obama to implode. He needs to organize around the country and generate enthusiasm for his campaign. He's wasted three months already, and his time will run out soon.
And yes, if this were Red State, I'd be a concern troll. :)
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